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This is the area near 146'16 where I previously said I would cut my short position and buy a put spread. However, there are only 9 trading days left until I would have to roll option contracts which would be at different price levels. So unfortunately I didn't account for this when I opened the trade. I'm going to just stay short the one contract and not buy a put spread and play it by ear. Depending on prices after the roll I might revisit the long put spread idea.
Jason, Do you currently have a short June ZB position? If so, just wondering if/when you are planning to roll and if you have developed any strategies to best do the roll. I will need to roll my position by Tuesday at the latest.
I closed my short about an hour after we opened trading today because ZB gaped down about 20 ticks, I'm basically trying to scalp on the roll. I will wait until Tuesday and then reenter a short using the next contract. If this light volume gap didn't occur today because of the holiday then in the past I've just paid the bid and ask to roll because it's a liquid market. I think the only strategy to employee is a gamble like I'm doing in attempting to scalp on the roll. I'll feel like a big idiot if this move continues down and I don't get a chance to reenter because my loss on this trade as of the closing price on my trade was 2'11.
147'02 was the price I saw and decided to close my short, but was at 147'05 by the time I could click the buttons, it was that quick a move. I'm looking to get short at 147'00 on the new front month contract, there is a '20 differential on the two so would pick up close to a half point scalp if things go well.
I was sleeping when the alert when off that the gap on the ZB chart was filled. I reentered a short on the front month contract as planned at 147'00, so picked up about '14 ticks on the roll. Still upside down on the trade by just under 2 full points. I wish TOS still had weekly options available on ZB.
Unbelievably terrible week. This feels like last summer/fall in that if I wasn't already short I would get short at these levels so I just keep leaving the trade on. I need a 7pt retracement just to break even. So probably now just looking to get out at a more reasonable loss. I'm probably going to buy a put spread here as well but need to decide on the expiration date to use and how much I'm willing to gamble with.
Massive gap on the open tonight on the ZB so I closed my short at 147'08 and will look to reenter. Cost avg was 145 so at 152'16 last week I was in pretty bad shape, I'm comfortable taking a much smaller loss here at about -$2500 and attempting to trade around the position and reenter again. Very thankful for the 5 pt turn around the last few days.
Wow, shorted again when the gap was partially filled at 148'08 and already down 1 pt. Nice volatility if you're on the right side right now. I did pick up 1pt on my cost average but obviously still upside down. Cost avg now near 146.
Last night was an exact repeat of last week, we gap opened down more than a point, I covered my short, and put it on again when we filled the gap. Was able to cost avg down 23 ticks on this trade. So while I've traded around this now three times and bettered my avg, I'm still down big at about 146'16 with ZB currently at 149'24.
Just covered at 147'26, will look to reenter a short once again if we bounce. I'm still 1.75 pts away from break even, but was once upside down by 7.5 pts so happy to have traded around it thus far.
Got short again this morning at 149'08, I'm slowly clawing my way back after calling this wrong directionally at 145. At these levels I can't trade both directions so only trading from the short side even though clearly the old highs of 146 are turned out to be invalid.
Just scratched the trade at 149'05, made three ticks. I should be happy that the market was down 2.5% and ZB really didn't move, but that's actually what scares me. I'm sitting in 100% cash for the first time in a long while, just going to sit tight for now.
I shorted Thursday at 149'24 and covered at 149'00, only to watch it break 148. I'm almost back to break even now, less than 1pt away. So the decision to actively trade around rather than just hold a short for some sort of 5pt+ move downward has worked out well so far. At these levels I couldn't get comfortable holding a long so have only been trading from the short side, that said, today I bought a 148 put and went long. I've got four weeks until expiration to trade from both sides now. I paid 1'32 for the put so obviously need to trade around a bit just to break even.
My long was closed at 149'12 this morning on that huge spike while I slept. So I gained a full point there and just entered a short at 149'24. I just now got back to positive trading this position since inception over seven weeks ago when I originally entered a short at 144'26 on 5/10/12. That's a lot of trades and a lot of time to make zero dollars.
Closed the 149'14 short just now at 148'16. The last few weeks have been good trading but all it did was erase my losses, which I'm not downplaying. It feels good to get positive again over the last few month of trading. Unfortunately I pulled the plug on my long 148 put when I closed out the long ZB. There was a net profit but the whole goal was to give myself the opportunity to trade from the long side until expiration, but the truth is I was so uncomfortable being long a put that I closed it out. I hate being long time premium because its the opposite of how I made money for the last seven years.
On one hand I feel like I need to get over that in order to be a more well rounded trader, but on the other hand, getting back to basics and doing what got me to the dance has been good, so I'm sticking with it for now. I've become much more of a futures swing trader than selling time decay. I guess that makes me a junkie because I need the pay off quicker.
This is the area near 146'16 where I previously said I would cut my short position and buy a put spread. However, there are only 9 trading days left until I would have to roll option contracts which would be at different price levels. So unfortunately I didn't account for this when I opened the trade. I'm going to just stay short the one contract and not buy a put spread and play it by ear. Depending on prices after the roll I might revisit the long put spread idea.
ReplyDeleteJason,
ReplyDeleteDo you currently have a short June ZB position? If so, just wondering if/when you are planning to roll and if you have developed any strategies to best do the roll. I will need to roll my position by Tuesday at the latest.
I closed my short about an hour after we opened trading today because ZB gaped down about 20 ticks, I'm basically trying to scalp on the roll. I will wait until Tuesday and then reenter a short using the next contract. If this light volume gap didn't occur today because of the holiday then in the past I've just paid the bid and ask to roll because it's a liquid market. I think the only strategy to employee is a gamble like I'm doing in attempting to scalp on the roll. I'll feel like a big idiot if this move continues down and I don't get a chance to reenter because my loss on this trade as of the closing price on my trade was 2'11.
ReplyDeleteSounds like a reasonable plan. I just put my order in to buy to close at 147'02. If it hits will do what you are doing. If not, will roll on Tues.
ReplyDelete147'02 was the price I saw and decided to close my short, but was at 147'05 by the time I could click the buttons, it was that quick a move. I'm looking to get short at 147'00 on the new front month contract, there is a '20 differential on the two so would pick up close to a half point scalp if things go well.
ReplyDeleteI was sleeping when the alert when off that the gap on the ZB chart was filled. I reentered a short on the front month contract as planned at 147'00, so picked up about '14 ticks on the roll. Still upside down on the trade by just under 2 full points. I wish TOS still had weekly options available on ZB.
ReplyDeleteNice job on the roll - I missed it so will just have to deal with whatever I can get tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteUnbelievably terrible week. This feels like last summer/fall in that if I wasn't already short I would get short at these levels so I just keep leaving the trade on. I need a 7pt retracement just to break even. So probably now just looking to get out at a more reasonable loss. I'm probably going to buy a put spread here as well but need to decide on the expiration date to use and how much I'm willing to gamble with.
ReplyDeleteMassive gap on the open tonight on the ZB so I closed my short at 147'08 and will look to reenter. Cost avg was 145 so at 152'16 last week I was in pretty bad shape, I'm comfortable taking a much smaller loss here at about -$2500 and attempting to trade around the position and reenter again. Very thankful for the 5 pt turn around the last few days.
ReplyDeleteWow, shorted again when the gap was partially filled at 148'08 and already down 1 pt. Nice volatility if you're on the right side right now. I did pick up 1pt on my cost average but obviously still upside down. Cost avg now near 146.
ReplyDeleteLast night was an exact repeat of last week, we gap opened down more than a point, I covered my short, and put it on again when we filled the gap. Was able to cost avg down 23 ticks on this trade. So while I've traded around this now three times and bettered my avg, I'm still down big at about 146'16 with ZB currently at 149'24.
ReplyDeleteJust covered at 147'26, will look to reenter a short once again if we bounce. I'm still 1.75 pts away from break even, but was once upside down by 7.5 pts so happy to have traded around it thus far.
ReplyDeleteGot short again this morning at 149'08, I'm slowly clawing my way back after calling this wrong directionally at 145. At these levels I can't trade both directions so only trading from the short side even though clearly the old highs of 146 are turned out to be invalid.
ReplyDeleteJust scratched the trade at 149'05, made three ticks. I should be happy that the market was down 2.5% and ZB really didn't move, but that's actually what scares me. I'm sitting in 100% cash for the first time in a long while, just going to sit tight for now.
ReplyDeleteI shorted Thursday at 149'24 and covered at 149'00, only to watch it break 148. I'm almost back to break even now, less than 1pt away. So the decision to actively trade around rather than just hold a short for some sort of 5pt+ move downward has worked out well so far. At these levels I couldn't get comfortable holding a long so have only been trading from the short side, that said, today I bought a 148 put and went long. I've got four weeks until expiration to trade from both sides now. I paid 1'32 for the put so obviously need to trade around a bit just to break even.
ReplyDeleteMy long was closed at 149'12 this morning on that huge spike while I slept. So I gained a full point there and just entered a short at 149'24. I just now got back to positive trading this position since inception over seven weeks ago when I originally entered a short at 144'26 on 5/10/12. That's a lot of trades and a lot of time to make zero dollars.
ReplyDeleteClosed the 149'14 short just now at 148'16. The last few weeks have been good trading but all it did was erase my losses, which I'm not downplaying. It feels good to get positive again over the last few month of trading. Unfortunately I pulled the plug on my long 148 put when I closed out the long ZB. There was a net profit but the whole goal was to give myself the opportunity to trade from the long side until expiration, but the truth is I was so uncomfortable being long a put that I closed it out. I hate being long time premium because its the opposite of how I made money for the last seven years.
ReplyDeleteOn one hand I feel like I need to get over that in order to be a more well rounded trader, but on the other hand, getting back to basics and doing what got me to the dance has been good, so I'm sticking with it for now. I've become much more of a futures swing trader than selling time decay. I guess that makes me a junkie because I need the pay off quicker.