Tuesday, September 15, 2009
BBY into the close
I am glad I traded this afternoon as I was reminded of another lesson. When you get in or out of a position you need the market to tell you it is time to get in or out. What do I mean? Lets take BBY for example I made a trade highlighted in the chart above it was having trouble get above 38.50 so I went low offer and got short 200 shares at 38.49 with a .02 stop. On the chart the 37.95-38 looked like it could be support. So their could be potentially .50 of profit in this trade and maybe even an opportunity to flip the position. I covered at 38.42! Why? I am asking myself the same question. There was nothing that had changed in the stock, the S&P was pulling back pretty stongly after making new highs, this thing just failed for the third time at Resistance at 38.50 and the stock was already weak off the back of its earnings today. These were all checks in my favor. And all reasons why I should had been holding the position. You may say that it was profitalbe and it was, but the easy money was only a few ticks away. With all these "checks" in my favor I really should had held this position until the market gave me a reason to sell and support at 38 would had been such a reason among others.
Now back to why this happened. It is because I did not formulate a complete detailed plan. I new that the stock was weak and that there was resistance at 38.50 and that I wanted to get short, and I had an exit/risk identified of .02. The piece I was missing is where I would get out if this thing traded in my favor. Above I mentioned the 38 level, but to to be honest that was not part of my trade analysis when I entered the trade. So this just reiterates the importance of having a detailed trading plan for every trade. And more importantly you need to have a exit for both when it trades against you and in your favor. It could be the difference of making .07/share or .50/share.
Also wanted to mention the strength I saw into the close off of the 38 level in BBY. I will look at this stock first thing in the morning to see if this is going to remain an important level. For now this will be one of my trade ideas into tomorrows open. Also going to keep SVA on my radar, Daily still looks great.
SVA today
SVA worked out to be a great trade today if you played it right. I preface it this way as I made some mistakes today trading this and only ended up about $5 on this stock. But let me explain. As you can recall from my post last night I wanted to buy SVA in the 9.75-9.90 area with a first target of $11. This morning SVA was gapping up in the pre-market at traded as high of 10.27. At this point I knew I had to adjust my plan just a bit. The first trade I put on was at 10.11 and took a sale at 10.16 when the .30's could not lift on the third try. In Reality the third time that SVA could not hold above .30's I should had taken a sale at .32, .31, or .30 depending on how fast I was. Third time is not a charm. This thing was not ready to go and it was going to give you and opportunity to get in at better prices. Then I tried the trade a few more times when I saw it trying to move higher and supporting at prices near 10.10. I took a few small losses. It broke 10 and traded down to 9.90 but never lower. At this point I am thinking, lets get into a really good price and hold this baby unless it trades below its 20 period moving average. So I entered in at 10.02 fearful of SVA not trading below 10 again as I saw this as a way of the big guys shaking out the weak hand longs. I trailed my stop a penny under the 20 period moving average. Up to this point I am very happy with my agressiveness on my execution. At the start of this trade I had a risk of about .14 and was seeking a move of at least .50-1 point to the upside. At one point before I closed my position pre-maturely I had a risk of about .04 because of my trailing stop with the same reward in sight. After I closed out this position it takes off almost .70 and I only catch about .20. But I guess the moral of the story or the big lessoned I learned today is to stick with the trading thesis and if the stock does not hit your stop loss do not hit out early. My stop was never hit. I woul had been long 100 shares and when .20 broke this is where I could had thought to buy a second lot.
However I am not upset with the missed trade, becuase I know for every missed trade there is another trade waiting. I am happy with my trading this morning because I learned something and will be better prepared for a setup like this in the future. I will look to see if this thing has follow through tomorrow.
Thanks for listenting to my thought process.
Good Luck Trading!
However I am not upset with the missed trade, becuase I know for every missed trade there is another trade waiting. I am happy with my trading this morning because I learned something and will be better prepared for a setup like this in the future. I will look to see if this thing has follow through tomorrow.
Thanks for listenting to my thought process.
Good Luck Trading!
A little Chicago news
Hey guys, I was put in touch with someone from Susquehanna after I left Chicago. He gave me some ideas on things I should put in my cover letter to attract their attention. He said he turned my resume in and said I would hear something in the next few weeks if they were interested. Truth be told, I think he just electronically entered the application just as I could over their website. It doesn't sound like he talked with anybody in person or that I have any inside shot. Submitting over websites doesn't work, that's why I wanted to go there and meet people. I think that if I'm interested I've probably just got to pick up and go for 6 months and see what happens. There is one place I found that does 6-month leases but as you would expect, they are more expensive than 12-month. However, I could use this logic. If I found a job it was worth it and you can afford to sign a cheaper 12-month or even buy a condo. If I didn't find a job I saved a lot of money by not signing a 12-month and I'm free to head on to my next destination.
Monday, September 14, 2009
ZOOM ZOOM ZOOM
After Dom left for work I couldn't handle the silence so I signed up for another free T3 trial and heard this one over the chatter. Watched this one double then triple, waited for the pullback found a strong level of support from the tape BUT couldn't put my order in quickly enough around $11 only to watch it blow through $14... Incredible.
Where will this one go tomorrow?
Where will this one go tomorrow?
Stocks on my Radar
All these Bio stocks have been in play the last few weeks. (SVA, NVAX, JAZZ, VVUS, OPXA, BCRX, OREX, MELA, AUXL, SLXP, DNDN). The market was again able to make new highs. Although the market may seem overextended or you may feel that it is overextended, it is important to remain open minded and not to let bias get in the way of good trading. Easier said then done. Try not to fight the tape.
1) Of all the bio's this SVA is my favorite on the charts. If it can get through 10 with some volume, it can easily get to >=$12. I will be looking to establish a position in this at a great price and set a wider stop. I really like the wedge pattern it is forming. The longer this thing consolidates, the more explosive it is going to be. I am going to look for an entry between 9.75-9.90 with a stop at 9.6, first target 11 then 12.50. Looking to put on 200 shares, offload half at 11 and let the other half ride.
I was very gun shy this morning with this AUXL. But it still looks like it may have some more room to run before its announcement on Wednesday. I would look to initiate a long on a pull back to in the range of 36-36.25 or a break out of 37. There is a $40 price target on this thing and this news on Wednesday is just the right catalyst to get us to that number.
Another high flier from today's trading day is SLXP. This thing gapped up like 7 points and really did not do much after this. But I do like how it based the whole day. I would look to be long in the 20-20.15 area for at least 2 points to the upside and would stop 19.70 and maybe even go from long to flat to short. I kind of have the feel of long above 19.70 and short below this level.
DRYS is finally starting to come alive. Thank god, I have my investment group at work in this one. We have plenty of time but I am tired of them giving me shit every day. Anyways they are finally green on this position, we still have 18 months. But anyways, this thing is finally breaking out. It failed last time at these levels, so lets see what it does. If it can get above 7.50 and hold I don't see anything on the charts until $8.5 then $10.
The chart for DNDN also looks good. Here are some notes from Mike B. at SMB Capital from their blog: Into the Close I recognized that one of the stocks I was long was stronger than all the others. That was DNDN, which will now be the first stock I consider to trade as I prepare before the Open tomorrow. Let’s discuss.
Into the Close I was long LVS, DRYS, AIG, and DNDN. SPY broke from its tight range and started an upmove into the last 45 minutes of the trading day. LVS did not trade higher, though it had cleared important technical levels. DRYS did not trade higher though above 7 was significant. AIG in a nice intraday uptrend was stopped in its tracks at 41.30. Not a strong upmove into the Close. But then there was DNDN.
DNDN closed strongly into the Close. It printed near its intraday high for the day. This is old school strong. DNDN found support at 26.70 and then cleared its intraday resistance at 27.27. Rosey called this out and got us in the trade to 50c. Now this move was not explosive above intraday resistance but it was better than all of the other stocks.
After the Close I made a note in my trading journal that DNDN finished the strongest into the Close. This will be the first stock I check when arrive early tomorrow AM. DNDN above 27.50 is my first trading idea. I will look at AIG next as it was the second strongest stock into the Close. LVS above 18.30 will get my attention. I have created a hierarchy for the next trading session.
All of this is subject to change overnight. But now I have started to think about my next trading session and the stocks that are the most interesting for how I trade. I start generating trading ideas for tomorrow right after the Close today.
Good Luck Trading!
1) Of all the bio's this SVA is my favorite on the charts. If it can get through 10 with some volume, it can easily get to >=$12. I will be looking to establish a position in this at a great price and set a wider stop. I really like the wedge pattern it is forming. The longer this thing consolidates, the more explosive it is going to be. I am going to look for an entry between 9.75-9.90 with a stop at 9.6, first target 11 then 12.50. Looking to put on 200 shares, offload half at 11 and let the other half ride.
I was very gun shy this morning with this AUXL. But it still looks like it may have some more room to run before its announcement on Wednesday. I would look to initiate a long on a pull back to in the range of 36-36.25 or a break out of 37. There is a $40 price target on this thing and this news on Wednesday is just the right catalyst to get us to that number.
Another high flier from today's trading day is SLXP. This thing gapped up like 7 points and really did not do much after this. But I do like how it based the whole day. I would look to be long in the 20-20.15 area for at least 2 points to the upside and would stop 19.70 and maybe even go from long to flat to short. I kind of have the feel of long above 19.70 and short below this level.
DRYS is finally starting to come alive. Thank god, I have my investment group at work in this one. We have plenty of time but I am tired of them giving me shit every day. Anyways they are finally green on this position, we still have 18 months. But anyways, this thing is finally breaking out. It failed last time at these levels, so lets see what it does. If it can get above 7.50 and hold I don't see anything on the charts until $8.5 then $10.
The chart for DNDN also looks good. Here are some notes from Mike B. at SMB Capital from their blog: Into the Close I recognized that one of the stocks I was long was stronger than all the others. That was DNDN, which will now be the first stock I consider to trade as I prepare before the Open tomorrow. Let’s discuss.
Into the Close I was long LVS, DRYS, AIG, and DNDN. SPY broke from its tight range and started an upmove into the last 45 minutes of the trading day. LVS did not trade higher, though it had cleared important technical levels. DRYS did not trade higher though above 7 was significant. AIG in a nice intraday uptrend was stopped in its tracks at 41.30. Not a strong upmove into the Close. But then there was DNDN.
DNDN closed strongly into the Close. It printed near its intraday high for the day. This is old school strong. DNDN found support at 26.70 and then cleared its intraday resistance at 27.27. Rosey called this out and got us in the trade to 50c. Now this move was not explosive above intraday resistance but it was better than all of the other stocks.
After the Close I made a note in my trading journal that DNDN finished the strongest into the Close. This will be the first stock I check when arrive early tomorrow AM. DNDN above 27.50 is my first trading idea. I will look at AIG next as it was the second strongest stock into the Close. LVS above 18.30 will get my attention. I have created a hierarchy for the next trading session.
All of this is subject to change overnight. But now I have started to think about my next trading session and the stocks that are the most interesting for how I trade. I start generating trading ideas for tomorrow right after the Close today.
Good Luck Trading!
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