A personal finance blog about trading, investing, and other wealth building strategies. Learn how to trade options, get trade ideas, and make money online from home.
Monday, August 31, 2009
A little hindsight investing idea for Dom
My twitter handle
http://twitter.com/blackmarkt
Thursday, August 27, 2009
AIG recap below... incredible day!!!
http://blackmarkt.blogspot.com/2009/08/todays-performance_27.html
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Another post to contemplate from our personal trading coach...
Reflections on Trading Processes
What is your trading process?
* How do you generate your best trade ideas?
* How do you manage risk most effectively?
* How do you manage positions most effectively to get the most out of trade ideas?
* How do you most effectively manage yourself and your emotions during trading?
* How do you prepare for market days most effectively?
* How do you best review markets and trading performance for optimal learning?
What I find is that the traders who have been successful over the long haul know the answers to these questions and also have very distinctive answers.
Like Toyota or UPS, they have developed their own, unique processes that are both efficient and effective. Success is a function of refining processes over time and becoming ever more consistent in following those processes.
If you *know* your processes, you can more readily develop confidence in them. Many times that is the difference between making the good trade and not; avoiding the bad trade and not.
Half of the challenge of trading is finding your best practices; the other half is implementing them with fidelity and consistency.
Here is another one and I know that we have all experienced this one:
Why Can't I Follow My Trading Plans?
An experienced trader writes to me:
I wondered if at some point you could re-address or provide links to
brief solutions for not staying committed to one's daily plan. Today
was an excellent example. After a breakeven morning with two decent
ideas which didn't pan out, I crunched some numbers which suggested
that the late afternoon, specifically the last hour, could be weak as
much as 1% down by the close and at worst maybe about .5% against me
(lower probability). I went short ES @ 829.50 around 2:45. The mkt
floundered around and by 3:53, I think, it's not going to happen today
and I don't feel like going home with a loss if the big boys try to
squeeze them at the end of day. So I cover with a 1/2 pt loss and
within 2 minutes the market begins to slide, cracking 10 pts by EOD.
Let's just assume the idea was randomly good or bad, I can still
estimate thousands (if not tens of thousands) of dollars in
opportunity cost over time, i.e. selling a winning trade @ 330 pm
instead of at the close per entry time plans for time and/or price.
All of us have experienced the frustration of bailing out of a trade prematurely, only to see it go our way. What makes it so difficult to stick with trade ideas and plans?
I'm going to use more than one post to address this question, because it lies at the heart of trading psychology. Indeed, it was my own experience as a trader--seeing that I was making all of the common mistakes that traders make, despite my background in psychology--that led me to write my first book in the area and examine the role of consciousness in decision-making.
The gist of what I described in the book was that, when psychological impediments to good trading occur, it is because the state of mind and body that we're in when we're executing or managing the trade is different from the state in which we formulated the trade idea.
From this perspective, all of the brief therapy techniques that I discuss in my subsequent books--cognitive, behavioral, dynamic, solution-focused methods--have the same purpose: to create consistency in our conscious awareness, so that we view markets through one, clear set of lenses throughout a trade.
What derails traders is that, at some point, we switch perceptual lenses and view the trade through the lens of profit/loss (P/L), not through the lens of probabilities, risks, and rewards.
That appears to be the case with the trader above. The key to his dilemma is that he had a breakeven morning, with two "decent" ideas that didn't pay him out. That set the stage for frustration. When he contemplates the third idea leaving him in the hole and says, "it's not going to happen today and I don't feel like going home with a loss", now he is P/L focused, not market focused. He is managing his feelings about the day's trade, not the trade he has on.
Performance anxiety occurs whenever our concerns over the outcome of a performance interfere with the process of performing. If our P/L focus exceeds our plan focus, we will tend to act impulsively to allay our P/L concerns, thereby violating trading rules and plans. Under conditions of frustration and anxiety, our perception becomes tunnel-visioned: we act to reduce our distress, rather than to maximize our opportunity.
Below are links that address this issue from different perspectives. In forthcoming posts, I will elaborate on solutions that aid in consistency of thought and action.
The Mother of all Final Hour Volatility Squeezes: AIG
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Chicago Update
So I think all my questions about a possible move have been answered. I was able to find a few buildings I would like to live in. The only downside is they are all about the same price as what I'm paying now. I was looking to reduce my expenses. I could save money and go down to $900 but you would be living in gangland on the south side. Or you could pay $1200 and live in the city but in really dilapidated buildings with crappy amenities. But for $1400 I could have a state of the art building that looks and feels like a 4-star hotel. I walked the neighborhoods from north of Wrigley to the financial district. It really comes down to do you want to save a few hundred bucks for a trade off in amenities or distance from downtown. I would view a move as a 6-month experiment. If I wasn't able to network myself in to something by that time then I would have to reevaluate my game plan. So I guess I'm OK with paying high rent for that period of time until I can figure things out. I'm still debating in my head, I haven't made a decision. I'll think about it over the next few months and make a decision about moving late this year. I think at the moment I feel that unless something comes up, I'm probably heading to Chicago. We'll see. It was a good trip and I'm glad I did it.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Links on Proprietary trading firms
Directory of shops: http://www.traderslog.com/proprietarytradingfirms.htm
This site mentions a trade shope that has a very nice payout and commission structure: http://www.xomba.com/how_become_equity_trader_working_proprietary_trading_firm
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Monday Stocks I'll be monitoring
- The cheaper TARP financials: C, BAC, NCT, AIG (think it has more volatile steam), FRE, FNM,
- Misc: HURN, AXL,
Just for you Jason...
Social Networking and Trading Success
I start with a few basic premises:
* I have something to offer selected, others in the trading world;
* Selected others have something to offer me;
* I don't know who those others are, but I can find out.
So every week, I make it a point to "cold call" at least one trader or industry professional who seems to be a kindred spirit.
* Half of all my contacts are not returned;
* Half of the contacts returned result in polite thank yous and nothing more;
* Half of the remaining contacts result in pleasant social contact and nothing more;
* Half of the pleasant social contacts peter out after a short while;
* The remaining (roughly one in sixteen) contacts prove to be highly mutually fulfilling.
So every year, I add on average three professional soulmates to my network, as they add me to theirs. We learn from each other and further each other's work; we keep each other going during tough times and are there cheering on the sidelines during times of victory.
With 15 out of 16 contacts ultimately "failing", you could say that I'm not very good at networking.
With a network that grows year over year, you could say that I'm a raving success.
Both are true.
It's the "failed" outreaches that lead to the successes.
How similar to trading: You have to lose to win. And you have to embrace the losses to find the victories.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
A quote from Dr. Steenbarger...
So True!
Playing the Breakout: NCT
So I was watching stocktwitstv today and saw a segment with Brian Shannon who has his own site called Alphatrends.net. I found his analysis and commentary about misleading tape (bid & ask) practices interesting and am personally intrigued about how I can do so with my orders... He discussed how the laggard cheap financial stocks like FRE, FNM, C, etc... started moving this week which is exactly what I was expecting... too bad it hasn't happened for CIT yet.
I added NCT to my day trading Watchlist. For me I can see 2 bullish and 1 bearish ways to play this stock intraday. It's helps to remember that this stock was over $20 about 2 years ago...
1) If the stock can hold above the previous day's high at $1.50 then you could initiate a small position. The next level of minor resistance is $1.60. If it can clear $1.60 it should head straight to$2 with a few bull flags to rest through. What I would love to see is a push through $1.50, a sucessful retest of it, hold and clear $1.60. That would indicate the maximum power of the bears and the line in the sand that the bulls have drawn. Above the $1.60 level we should see demand overwhelm or at least outweigh supply. Volume is also key too.
2) If the stock begins to fall you could wait to see if the stock holds resistance at about $1.20. What I would love to see before hitting the buy button is the stock come down close or to $1.20 and bounce off that key support. Depending on the velocity of the upswell I would look to get in as close to support as possible.
3) You could also short the stock if $1.20 support fails and look to unload before the next key area of support around $1.00 which is also the 200SMA.
So I've set an alert at $1.52 and $1.25.
Jason's Chicago Trip (Prop shop interviews)
From Jason:
Hey guys, I had my meeting with the guy from Peak6 yesterday, and a second meeting with a guy from a futures firm. The Peak6 guy was really cool, answered a lot of questions. He explained to me what exactly they do and there isn't anything there that is a natural fit for what my background in trading is. They only have a few traders and they are all financial engineers, not exactly traders. The firm itself is a market maker in certain ticker symbols, and then does risk arbitrage on anything they think they can exploit. So let's say the options pricing model would price an certain option at $2.50, if because of supply demand fluctuations or big shifts of volatility this option is priced differently, let's say $2.40 or $2.60, they will exploit this discrepancy through a combination of stock, options, futures, and specially structured off the exchange derivatives. They borrow money from Goldman Sachs in order to leverage up and multiply those pennies thousands of times. So obviously this is an advanced trading scheme and something I'm not currently qualified for. So I asked the natural questions like how do people become qualified, and what type of background did your current employees come from, etc. So beyond the obvious route of coming from the bigger name MBA schools or being a quant who was recruited by the firm, he didn't really have any answers for me. He knows somebody at Susquehanna and asked me to call him on Monday and he'll see if he can set up a meeting with them for next week since I'll be here. He said he thinks that they might have something a long the lines of what I'm experienced at doing. So we'll see. At a minimum he's a contact that works in the CBOE building which is where all the action takes place here. He said for me to check in with him every few months and for me to just keep networking. I inquired about a part-time unpaid internship to get my foot in the door and get exposed to everything that's going on and it sounded like that was a possibility that he could either hel p me with directly at his firm, or through some of the other firms in the building.
The second meeting was with a guy I had had some conversations with back in November. At that time I was looking in to learning how to play futures because from my recollection of taking the Series 3 exam it looked like it was basically options on steroids. But right as I got in contact with him is when things went south in a hurry when I was short some naked puts. So I didn't want to send money in to open a futures account because I though I needed it all to potentially buy stock if those puts got exercised. Long story short, I now have money freed up and I still have the interest to learn futures so I gave him a call. He works for MF Global which is a large futures/options broker. I will be opening up an account with him next week, and he too was very helpful in answering all the questions I had. On a personal level we just it off like the three of us have and with or without opening an account he seemed genuinely interested in helping me out should I chose to move to Chicago. He also works in the CBOE building and knows a lot of people at a lot of different firms. He said he would have no problem passing my resume around and introducing me to people. I ran the internship idea past him and he made it sound as if that shouldn't be a problem.
So in my opinion both meetings went about as well as I could have expected. This networking thing has been difficult for me. I'm not the most outgoing person, but it's starting to pay off. At a minimum now I know two guys who work in the building that I eventually want to be in. As long as they don't suddenly just stop returning my calls or emails I think at a minimum I'll be able to network further through them. I would say that if I was on the fence about coming to Chicago this should have pushed me over and left no doubt. My initial intent would have been to come for 6 months and network and see what I could come up with. That's still basically my plan should I chose to go. But anything can happen between now and January. I am interested in pursuing the SMB thing, or similar situation with another firm. I still have many calls and research to do on others so who knows what I'll come up with. So I would say that as of now I'm leaning towards heading out here sometime in the spring, but again, anything can happen between now and then and I'm completely open to anything. Mark and I have talked about possibly going to NYC together and I'm definitely interested in that. I'm spending the next few days literally walking the streets and getting familiar with the neighborhoods and looking at apartments. There is so much available here it's pretty sick. Rather than looking for a place to live in general, it's more like just pick an area you want to be in and there is plenty available within each neighborhood. I haven't seen specific prices yet other than what's posted online. So I'll get more of a feel for that the next few days. That's about it, maybe I'll have something more if indeed I get to meet with somebody from Susquehanna next week.
Mark Replied:
Sounds great Jason. I would say you were really successful in getting solid leads and networking. I think trading equities is not like most day to day jobs where their looking for political corporate choices like who fits best in our workplace, who's attractive, who's not threatening, who's going to do what I say and who's not cause me too much headache. Trading firm opportunities seem to be there as long as you can commit and are willing to do whatever it takes to make money. I think partners are strongly encouraged to see someone who's aggressively looking to get in as long as they can prove that they have the endurance and passion to make it... because of the bottom line nature of the business.
Keep up the networking! Personally I've found networking isn't hard at all when you're talking shop and possibly employment with others who share your passion.
I can see you in Chicago more than Orange County because the people there are more about simple things like community.There is more than ample housing in Chicago and now you know why I am so bullish about their real estate market. I check their listings daily and monitor existing properties and they are still haven't bottomed out yet... and the area is already relatively affordable when compared with over-priced sunbelt markets like LA.
I think I may have to shorten my 2-year plan. Yesterday I learned from my Supervisor that things are taking a serious turn for the worse with my employer and it looks like the cuts are heading my way.I am going to be looking to transition more aggressively and prepare for this eventuality. So... let's keep talking about doing the training program like SMB's in NYC. At the very least you get invaluable training/experience in NYC which is can be written-off...
Who knows what the future holds especially during hard economic times...
Dominic's Response:
Sounds like you had some successful meetings so far. I really think
that the three of us hooking up and sharing our passion has motivated
all of us to make that leap a lot more aggressively then we might have
if we would had never really joined forces. I just wanted to thank the
both of you for being such a great source of motivation and for all
your contribution thus far. I look forward to our progress and the
road ahead.
Routine for going live...
Morning Routine:
5:00-5:30 am – search briefing.com for stocks in play and read synopsis of market events and what may move the market. Pick a few stocks that I think will be in play and turn to the charts to find some levels, check where they are at pre-market and if any levels with significant volume. (Once live I assume I will be sharing these in the play sheet, not sure though). I usually write in my trading journal at this time as well.
5:30-6:00 am – Tune in to the SMB morning call. To continue to gather good trade ideas, and or confirmation on some of the ideas that I already have.
6:00-6:15 am – Visualization exercises
6:15 -6:30 am – Set alerts for other ideas from morning meeting. Continue to watch primary and secondary stock trade pre-market. Continue to look for other trading candidates. Share trading ideas in the chat room.
6:30-8:00 a.m – Complete focus on trading the open.
Routine for Close:
11:45 am -Noon – Sit down at computer at friends place. Skim briefing. Look at stock I traded during the open and see if they are near important levels that I had identified in the morning. Look to the charts of stocks I traded in the morning to see if anything interesting had developed since I left. Also check intraday alerts. Choose two stocks to trade on the close, they may or may not be the same from the morning. Just depends which ones look like they are presenting the most opportunity, and/or how I traded them in the morning. Ideally I would like to trade the stocks from the morning as I have already put in the hard work, and it seems like a lot of the time my ideas take time to play out in the afternoon when I am no longer trading.
Noon- Market Close – Complete focus on trading the close.
Night Routine:
7:30-8:30 pm – Review my trading tape. And comment on my trades in the mentor sheet.
8:30-9:00 pm – Do visualization Exercises
9:00-9:15 – scan briefing.com and CNBC.com for any breaking news or news that may put a stock in play tomorrow. (Actually just starting this one on Monday).
9:15-10:00 pm – Pour through charts for possible plays tomorrow (This is one I am starting next week as well)
Weekend schedule:
More screen time. Review at least one of the archived OGT or Video review sessions on Saturday and again on Sunday.
Mark - I was also wondering if you might be interested in giving us some lessons in technical analysis. As it seems that you are the most well versed in this area. I know some of the basics, but I could use more help in this area. Let us know.
Dom
Friday, August 21, 2009
A few pieces of information
1) I wanted to remind you guys that there is a prop desk in La Jolla near San Diego. I actually may join it after I get some success with SMB as they have the highest payout I have seen in the industry. But they lack a training program and mentorship. The name of the prop shop is Ocean View Capital and its website is the following: WWW.OCEANVIEWTRADE.COM. Mike Kestler is one of the partners and senior traders. They have the same commissions as SMB but have 90% payout structure and you have to have $10k on deposit with them and they will provide you with the intraday buying power that you need.
2)During my 2 days off this week, while I was waiting in the hospital waiting rooms I reveiwed a couple sections of "The Daily trading coach". Came accross tradingrm.com. This is another prop shop mostly dedicated to option located in Chicago. There website is at tradingrm.com. I reccomend you guys check out the blog.
Jason, not sure if you have checked out the site yet or not but it sounds promissing for someone in your shoes. I like the blog to.
Thats all.
Dom
Stocks to watch 8/21/2009
Market is gaping up and with that I have a long bias for the day. I will however be mentally agile.
Good luck trading today.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
Watch the dollar's demise or at least it's intermediate fall
Today' Performance <082009>
Underlying | Action | Quantity | Price | Sold | Commission | Net Proceeds |
C | SWING | 500 | 4.04 | 4.19 | 5 | $70.00 |
HURN | DAY | 100 | 20.55 | 20.36 | 2 | -$21.00 |
HURN | DAY | 100 | 20.6 | 20.28 | 2 | -$34.00 |
AIG | DAY | 100 | 29 | 29.29 | 2 | $27.00 |
AIG | DAY | 100 | 29.5 | 29.6 | 2 | $8.00 |
AIG | DAY | 100 | 30.1 | 30.2 | 2 | $8.00 |
C | DAY | 500 | 4.28 | 4.48 | 2 | $98.00 |
AIG | DAY | 100 | 31 | 31.1 | 2 | $8.00 |
FRE | DAY | 200 | 1.47 | 1.58 | 2 | $20.00 |
AIG | DAY | 100 | 33.6 | 33.7 | 2 | $8.00 |
FRE | DAY | 200 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2 | $18.00 |
ES | DAY | 100 | 9.3 | 9.39 | 2 | $7.00 |
AIG | DAY | 100 | 31.65 | 31.3 | 2 | -$37.00 |
AIG | DAY | 100 | 31.3 | 31.57 | 2 | $25.00 |
AIG | DAY | 100 | 31.7 | 31.8 | 2 | $8.00 |
AIG | DAY | 100 | 32.4 | 32.5 | 2 | $8.00 |
Total Net | $221.00 |
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Buy everything but the dollar says Warren Buffet: NY Times Op/Ed
If the dollar falls then expect the market to continue it's unusual rally as our exports become cheaper and people flee from cash into other equities and assets. Oil will continue to rally as the dollar falls against other currencies. But if you hold cash or US bonds may Peter Schiff help you...
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/19/opinion/19buffett.html?_r=1&ref=opinion
today's performance <081909>
Underlying | Day or Swing | Quantity | Price | Sold | Commission | Net Profit |
AXL | Day | 100 | 6 | 6.2 | 2 | $18.00 |
C | Day | 500 | 4.09 | 4.15 | 5 | $25.00 |
AXL | Day | 100 | 6.9 | 7 | 2 | $8.00 |
HPQ | Day | 100 | 43.45 | 43.22 | 2 | -$25.00 |
CIEN | Day | 100 | 13.17 | 13.42 | 2 | $23.00 |
D | Swing (2 day) | 100 | 33.2 | 33.45 | 2 | $23.00 |
HURN | Day | 100 | 19.75 | 19.81 | 2 | $4.00 |
AIG | Day | 100 | 26.75 | 26.6 | 2 | -$17.00 |
Total Net | $59.00 |
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Today's Performance <081809>
HURN #1: $18.2, $18.25 = $3
HURN #2: $18.80, $18.98 = $16
AXL #1: $5.02, $5.1 = $8
AXL #2: $5.22. $5.30 = $6
HURN #4: $18.50, $18.80 = $28
AXL #4: $5.18, $5.30 = $10
HURN #5: $19.10, $18.92 = $14
HURN #6: $19.15. $19.15 = $12
Swing Trades
C #1 (1000 shares): $4 (yesterday), $4.07 = $65
Total Proceeds for today = $135
Working on: Need to learn to let my winners ride more and not get so antsie.
Absolutely crazy day trade
Monday, August 17, 2009
Update
GG
Gap down in the market --> Less Opportunity to short intra-day
Right now I'm up a little trading WLP twice and buying back my MTW calls for some pocket change. Goal is to remain in the green today.
Did I call that or what?
Sunday, August 16, 2009
SMM Vegas Workshop in Oct.
I'll share what I learned if it proves fruitful.
Thanks.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
SMB Blog: The question before us
http://www.smbtraining.com/blog/?p=1755
Can You Make it as a Retail Trader?
August 15, 2009 11:17 am Bella Bella's Blogs, General CommentsI received this email from a reader of our blog. I thought we could discuss……
Hi, this is Ivan in NYC(Bulgarian immigrant) – regular reader of the blog. I’m a retail trader – relatively a newbie.
Although, I can not formulate particular trading strategy just by reading the blog I enjoy reading it and find it useful.
I would like to ask you about your honest opinion and advice to the retail traders like me – what are the main disadvantages we have compared to the equity firm traders?
What honestly do you think are retail trader’s chances to be consistently profitable in swing and day trading?
Thank you for sharing and Good Luck.
Bella Responds:
Trading is probably the most difficult thing you will attempt in your life. It is like trying to join an exclusive country club- they do not let everyone in, and they don’t let everyone stay. But more are capable of becoming a successful trader than you may think.
There is this outdated bias that you must work at a big bank, live in NYC, and have millions behind you to succeed. This is simply not true. Technology has opened the markets to the masses. Trading platforms, like LightSpeed, with direct access to the markets are available. Charting software is simple to find. Blogs with exceptional education are prevalent, many like this blog for free. Now we have StockTwits TV, a tremendous educational trading resource. Training programs are offered for those looking for help to become a professional trader. With 30k you can open a retail account (you will also need capital to survive the learning curve). Now anyone with a passion for trading, the desire to pay the price necessary to succeed, and some capital can compete.
But these are some pretty big ifs. Are you truly willing to pay the price? Will you work on your game everyday? Or will you bail as soon as things get a little tougher than you expected? Will you ensure you receive the proper training? Or will you just read a few charting books and conclude that this all the training you need and then foolishly attack the markets? Is your passion truly for trading? Or do you think trading would just be something cool to try? Do you have some capital to trade your own account and survive the learning curve? Or are you under-capitalized and just hoping that you will start making money on Day 1?
Technology has opened the markets to us all. Can you become a successful trader? I don’t know. But I do know that it is entirely up to you.
Best of luck with your trading! Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter!
Investing with Options
I'll be monitoring his picks and plays...
http://www.investingwithoptions.com/
Friday, August 14, 2009
JPM & MET Call Spreads
Got cut up today...
1) PCX: Bought 100 shares at $10.05. Stopped out at $9.95 = $12 loss
2) LVS: Bought 100 shares at $13.57. Stopped out at $13.40 = $17 loss
3) LVS: Bought 100 shares at $13.30. Stopped out at $13.21 = $11loss
4) LVS: Bought 100 shares at $13.30. Stopped out at $13.15 = $17 loss
5) BAC: Bought 100 shares at $17.40. Stopped out at $17.35 = $7 loss
That's almost a $54 loss for today. I also suffered another LVS $70 loss for the swing trade I carried over the night.
So I'm down about $125 for the day.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
My early morning losses & other trades
EK: Bought 100 shares a@ 4.32, stopped out at 4.26 = $8 loss
SKF:Bought 100 shares @ $29.09, stopped out at $28.80 = $31 loss
BAC: Bought 100 shares @ $16.65, stopped out at $16.48 = $17 loss
I made about $20 later in the day with EK, buying 300 shares of UNG at $12.52 late yesterday and selling this morning at $12.79, and shorting COIN from yesterday and closing out my position pre-market for about $20.
CIT
C
LVS
SMB...The next step
Roy was telling my typically the turning point for a new trader is about 3 months. Meaning in 3 months this is when you really start to become consistently profitable and at the 6 month mark they are ready to start pushing you to your potential to really see how much money you can make.
Anyways I will keep you guys posted.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Day Trading, Cheap commissions, and overtrading
To put everything in perspective the experienced active trader is trading anywhere from 50-100k shares a day, but they are also making a few thousand bucks a day. It really all comes down to ticket average to see how efficient you are trading. To find the ticket average you take your total P&L and divide it by 1000. So if you are up $150 and you traded 3000 your ticket average or profit per 1000 shares traded is $50. Now in my case today if you traded 10k shares and you were up 30 then your ticket average was $3.
I think that SMB targets $15 or greater. On my good days I have anywhere from 9-50 TA.
Just thought I would share.
USO
Watched the market open up, hold and scanned my sector watchlist and saw the oil and oil service sectors all positive. Decided to make a trade, assessed the risk/reward ratio for USO the stock could run up to $37.70 before hitting serious resistance from it's open of $37 and I was willing to gamble .05¢. Took on the position once uptrend of $37.10 was beginning to work. Got in at $37.14 with a tight stop at $37.09. Realized stop was too tight and was stopped out. Got back in at $37.20 and sold out at $37.49 once I recognized there was heavy resistance at $37.50.
Stock has since fallen back down right after I got out and looks like it's making another run... still on radar but will probably wait until the closing bell to take on anymore trades.
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Breakdown not breakout: CSIQ
So... what I learned today I need to work on managing multiple positions. Looking back over this trade there was absolutely no probably reason that this stock was going to erase today's pullback and hit my $19 target. The fact that the stock was able keep it's day low at the same level as the previous day's low and close above the previous day's low is a bullish sign. A more probable trade would have been to buy around $18.10, the max power of the bears.
Time Capsule Treasure Chest Stock: CIT
Once there's stabilization with CIT I will look to sell monthly covered calls.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aTOaAnSiL7YM
COIN
Another important tool I used was the "tape" or Market Depth to see how the order flow was going. Thanks to Dom's stocktwits link I was able to apply what I learned last night.
The lesson I learned from yesterday is "hubris" not going back today unless there's some new development I can confirm. Going to follow gambling rules the longer you play the more the probability favors the house.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Day trading and trade amnesia...
Today was a perfect example. I was trading DISH and I had identified 20 as an important level. So on the break of 20 my plan was to get short for about a point move to the downside. It brok 20 support so I initiated my short at 19.99, my orignal exit was a break back above 20 covering at .01-.03 depending how fast I was. Well the stock did not go down right away so I covered for even money. That was my first mistake, I did not give this stock any room to breath. It never traded above 20 going into its 1.01 downmove to 19.02. I was pissed that I had covered my dream entry too soon. So I stepped back and re-evaluated the trade to find another good entry letting my last trade hover like a lightning cloud. I decide that the break of 20 was confirmation of my bias and that I would be even more confident if the days low at 19.85 was taken out that this baby was going to 19. The risk/reward was still good risking about .06 to make .85. So I got short at .84 setting a stop at .91. But again I was inpatient and covered at .77 dwelling on the fact that I left .15 on the table and the best entry for this trade. So moral of the story is don't let past trades effect your judgment on the trade you are in. I am not saying don't use information from past trades to guide you but I let this negative feeling affect my trading.
Not sure If I was clear or not but I think you get the idea of what I am trying to say. Don't let past trades affect future ones!
Today was a frustrating day as I was always a "Day late and a dollar short", so to speak on my entries and exits.
Reading the tape...
Enjoy!
MGM
Sunday, August 9, 2009
Misc
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Meeting Recap
Just to recap:
- I signed up for my free trial subscription to sfomag.com and am checking out the sight now.
- Reading the tape at SMB. I believe this is the "Market Depth" feature on IB and I've been watching it for the past couple weeks trying to understand what I'm seeing and how to intrepret that information. Maybe we can cover this on skype some time soon?
- I didn't mention it but I am consider attending a 1-day workshop (just depends on the cost) for stockmarketmentor.com in Vegas on Oct. 3rd. This site has definitely taught me most of my technical analysis and I can attest to it's educational as well as financially beneficial value. If anyone else is interested please let me know. Dan Fritzpatrick who runs the site will be hosting this 8-4:30 workshop covering the following curriculum:
- Curriculum: This is an intense workshop for those who are serious about getting serious with your trading. This is not a basic workshop for newbies! (I'll teach one of those early 2010)
- Students will learn how to prepare for and trade the "opening rotation" using techniques that can enable you to make more money before you go to work than you are likely to make at your regular job.
- Am I teaching you secret formulas and methods that no one knows about? No! Those don't work because they don't exist! That's the fallacy of trading. There is nothing new under the sun (and no one else will tell you this!)
- I will be revealing trading methods that few traders know about, and even fewer use. You'll learn the tactics and techniques of professional desk traders who regularly steal money from the amateurs before going out to breakfast on your dime! I will put you into the game with the tools you need to switch teams! To take you from "amateur" to "pro."
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- Wall Street Warriors on Hulu:
http://www.hulu.com/wall-street-warriors
Friday, August 7, 2009
LVS
Watched and waited to see if there was another entry but the stock failed to show another uptrend leg into the close.
I am still bullish on this stock as it approaches the 200 SMA... will wait and see what happens on Monday.
C
Stock looks really strong still trading above the upper bollinger band holding today's breakout... will be monitoring to see if the trend continues and/or the stock begins trading sideways in a volatility squeeze. With all these positive government economic indicators the worst for even Citigroup looks to be in the rear view mirror at least that's what investors may be seeing.
Probably won't be trading anymore today unless I see a really good setup during the day.
Daily chart:
1 minute chart:
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Shit adds up quick
Old posts
Momentum Trading
I actually traded this this morning. I was in and out way to fast as I have never traded a stock that moves so quick. You could blink and it would be up 2-3 dollars or down by the same amount. This thing was crazy but in a opportunistic way.
These movements over the past few days should keep it in play for the next couple of days. I hope to grow some balls and hold it for a longer move. This morning Laz of T3 shorted at the top at $29.30 and caught the entire move down to about $22 for a $40k chop. Which means he had 5k shares of this baby. I can only imagine the day.
By the way Jason, you have got to sign up for the free trial of at t3live.com. You would love the commentary and the morning meetings going over the landscape of the market and the trades that may set up for the day. I reccomend that you listen to Sperling and Redler only at first. Let me know when you check it out.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Saturday
WFMI: Called my company's action correctly post-earnings play
This is the email I sent to one of my Supervisors as soon as earnings was announced:
Amazing that the stock is up on the news... countering the “buy on rumor sell on the news” setup. The street seems to like something that was reported. Traders are anticipating the turn in the economy and getting way ahead of future earnings (PE’s are huge). We’ll see what happens to WFMI in the first 15 minutes of trading tomorrow. If we can hold up these levels we’ll probably head straight for $30 until we see resistance.
Watching a high flighe
Please provide me your input on this stock and this play in general.
Tuesday, August 4, 2009
MS & BAC
Going to be watching closely tomorrow to see where the setup and entry are. Just from a daily chart would like to see BAC retest the 200 SMA. As for MS breakout above $32.
SPF & the casinos (LVS, MGM, & WYNN)
Stalked SPF all morning watched it drop precipitously in the open stabilize around $3.60 and fall until it found real support around $3.50 and begin it's slow ascent. Waited until it broke $3.60 and picked up a small 100 lot and released at $3.72 for a .10¢ gain.
So busy watching this home builder that I completely missed the huge move up in the casinos...
Market just doesn't want to quit... "The trend is your friend"