Saturday, August 22, 2009

Playing the Breakout: NCT



So I was watching stocktwitstv today and saw a segment with Brian Shannon who has his own site called Alphatrends.net. I found his analysis and commentary about misleading tape (bid & ask) practices interesting and am personally intrigued about how I can do so with my orders... He discussed how the laggard cheap financial stocks like FRE, FNM, C, etc... started moving this week which is exactly what I was expecting... too bad it hasn't happened for CIT yet.

I added NCT to my day trading Watchlist. For me I can see 2 bullish and 1 bearish ways to play this stock intraday. It's helps to remember that this stock was over $20 about 2 years ago...

1) If the stock can hold above the previous day's high at $1.50 then you could initiate a small position. The next level of minor resistance is $1.60. If it can clear $1.60 it should head straight to$2 with a few bull flags to rest through. What I would love to see is a push through $1.50, a sucessful retest of it, hold and clear $1.60. That would indicate the maximum power of the bears and the line in the sand that the bulls have drawn. Above the $1.60 level we should see demand overwhelm or at least outweigh supply. Volume is also key too.

2) If the stock begins to fall you could wait to see if the stock holds resistance at about $1.20. What I would love to see before hitting the buy button is the stock come down close or to $1.20 and bounce off that key support. Depending on the velocity of the upswell I would look to get in as close to support as possible.

3) You could also short the stock if $1.20 support fails and look to unload before the next key area of support around $1.00 which is also the 200SMA.

So I've set an alert at $1.52 and $1.25.


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