They have earning on 1/25/10. I will look to offload the position going into earnings. I do not want to hold the risk into earnings.
More to come to the post later, have to head to work. As promised below is a little more analysis on the STLD position.
Above you can see an in depth analysis of the risk profile on this position. As you will see directly below the graph is a section called price slices. Here I have entered in 4 prices: Stop loss, current stock price, first price target, and second target. In this table you will be able to see the the estimated P&L will be at these prices and what the effect will be on the Greeks as well. Keep in mind that the Greeks are in terms of the entire position.
Below I added a two year 1 week chart. This is how far I had to go back to find the next level or resistance and try to determine my price target. As you can see on the chart I am targeting in the range of $20-$22. Could have more upside from here, but in my short holding period I think this would be the most this thing will move.
Reminder: I am managing this position with a trailing stop loss at the 15 MA which as of yesterday was at $17.86 and now has moved up on this move to $17.91.
When do you exit or stop losses the position if it runs against you?
ReplyDeleteMy stop loss is $17.5 on the stock. This will be about a $500 risk. Looking to make $1000-$1500, with a price target af about $20.
ReplyDeleteI will actually use the 15 day moving average as my trailing stop on this position. Currently the 15 day moving average is at 17.86.
ReplyDeleteSTLD breaking out of resistance at $18.50. Needs to clear $18.67 and then it is pretty open on the chart to about $20-$21.
ReplyDeleteHere's my plan. I plan to unload half around $20 & keep the other half for a run to $21.
ReplyDeleteDo you buy the stock or the synthetic? I am looking to offload the entire position at around $20, It depends on the momentum of the move.
ReplyDeleteBoth. ;-) bought 100 shares & took on your synthetic trade (bought calls at .85¢, sold the puts at $1.55)
ReplyDeleteLooks like it's popping today. Will probably look to unload tomorrow in a continuation move and possibly Friday depending on the strength of the move...
ReplyDeletePosted the update to this post as promised.
ReplyDeleteexiting half my position at $19.20 selling into strength... will look at $19.48 as another opportunity to lighten my load and finally only 25% for anything above $19.50.
ReplyDeleteMay look to make some adjustments to my synthetics into the close. I want to see how it trades for the next hour and a half. But I am thinking that I may buy back the short puts and sell the $21 call to lock in profits and reduce my risk. I may even roll the short $19 put down to the $18 strike.
ReplyDeleteNot sure yet, it all depends. I will keep you posted.
According to shortsqueez.com this stock has a ~30% short interest. This will really be helpful in attaining our price target.
ReplyDeleteI'm almost out. I'm comfortable leaving $$$ on the table. This is turning out to an amazing first few days of the year for me.
ReplyDeleteI am still watching. I still feel pretty comfortable holding. The volume on a 60 min chart for the last two up bars has been very strong. It represents about half of the volume. They also happen to be the largest volume bars of the day. Also comforting is the opening drive and strenth it has had throughout the day.
ReplyDeleteBut I am watching to make any adjustments. Currently I am up about $530 on the position.
Looks like it has a bit of head room to run. It has a ton of strength behind it probably be a continuation tomorrow. Great call Dom!
ReplyDeletei just checked shortsqueeze.com and it showed 6.2% short as float. But 1.7 days to cover think it continues tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteYou are correct. I looked at the wrong line. I was looking at the increase/decrease in short interest. My bad.
ReplyDeleteSo I decided to book profits up here at $19.5.
Booked $510 in profits.
I will probably be kicking myself for closing out the entire position tomorrow as this thing marches on.
ReplyDelete"Pigs get fed hogs get slaughtered" I netted about $400 so I'll take that and run. At least I'll sleep better tonight. ;-)
ReplyDeleteforget the 100 shares I sold about $92 so about $492 profit.
ReplyDeleteAfter making a 52 week high of about 20.50 this name has retracted back to interesting levels below 18. They have earnings on the 25th. STLD is back on the radar.
ReplyDelete