I've really made my money this year learning from Dan Fritzpatrick at StockMarketMentor.com. In 1 year I've gone from basically only having a few thousand dollars to over $100k. My swing portfolio is up over 50% year to date (my 401k which I opened in January is up over 30%) but I missed a lot of money having not taken his trades and market commentary.
Here is his current thesis:
He has called and stayed with the trend all the way up from March and advocated being a "vigilant bull". He feels that investors are emboldened in to buy in this easy money "temporary bull" market where Americans aren't consuming their income but investing and their flowing into stocks because a) it's been easy money for almost 6 months now and they are chasing ROI b) lack of competitive options (real estate is too risky and credit is difficult, bonds are boring and savings are basically 0% return) c) no one wants to be in dollars. He also believes that the market will be heading to 1200 Dow but will encounter heavy resistance as we approach this level because this is a natural level for sellers to take profits. There are 3 things he feels could derail this rally:
1) Unexpected consistently negative earnings
2) Disorderly fall in the dollar or a reversal in the dollar's demise
3) Fed changing it's tone and raising interest rates
So I will continue to buy on pullbacks, short the dollar on rallies and buy oil when the S&P looks strong.
No comments:
Post a Comment