Notes on BX

On 11/12/2009 I initiated a position in BX (black stone group) by selling 5 puts at the $15 strike price with Jan '11 expiration. At the time of the sale BX was trading at around $15.25. I do believe that the worst of the bleeding is over for this company and that deals are go to start again as they are able to possibly spin off some of the companies through IPO's that they had purchased through leveraged buyouts.

Why I like the position:

1 - They are expected to return to profitability this QTR after a few QTR's of negative earnings.

2 - There is a lot of chatter about them spinning off some companies via IPO, as the activity in this market has been increasing during recent months, and there has be decent interest in IPO's. The CEO said that it was prepping 8 of its holdings for IPO's in the near future. So far, of the 42 IPO's that had debuted this year as of 11/6/09 they have seen an average appreciation of about 7%. This is good for BX.

What do the probabilities look like?

What does the chart look like:

To be honest, I really did not look at the chart on this play.