I am alos looking at possible initiating a position in UNG. It is close to its 1 year lowsof about $8.80.I periodically look on the ETF's website to see whether it is trading at a discount/premium to its NAV (Net Asset Value). Basically what it is really worth. As of yesterday it had a NAV of $8.84 and is currently trading at a premium of about $0.10.
I am looking to sell the some July Puts on UNG. See Analysis below:
Sounds good I sold 2 $12 strike Jan 12 yesterday for $4.44. I saw what you saw... Will look to exit around $4.
ReplyDeletesorry UNG
ReplyDeleteI have not yet entered as there still may be more downside. I want to see how it acts down here. I saw a lot of buying pressure at $8.92 on the tape.
ReplyDeleteCurrentl the 15 day moving average is $1.61 below the 50 day. There are two things that could happen that would allow me to initiate my position.
1) The gap narrows between the 15 day MA and the 50 day MA.
2) Or it bases down here for a while.
I will keep you posted.
Update on STLD:
ReplyDeleteIt has moved faster than I had anticipated. It is close to resistance at $18 and then at about $18.5. I can currently take in about about 30% of my max profit.
I will be watching closely into the close to see what STLD does. If I can book 50% of my max gain today, I will happily take the money and run to the next position.
Dominic
Yeah I decided to exit my 200 share X position was up over $500 over the last week or so.
ReplyDeleteBTW- What tool is that you're using in the screenshots?
ThanX.
It is a tool in my Trademonster account. That is why I was telling you guys to open a free account with them so that. You would have access To these cool tools.
ReplyDeleteAs of Yesterday the NAV on UNG has dropped to $8.68, suggesting more downside. Still sitting on the sidelines on intiating this position.
ReplyDeleteSTLD is currently trading at $18, right on the first resistance. Looking at the level two there are some very large orders rightat $18 that STLD will need to chew through before it goes higher. Right now I see about 800k shares at the $18 pricke. But none the less it does seem to be working through those orders.
Closed my 3 put contracts in STLD today to book about 30% of the max profit. It looked very tired after 3 attempts to break through the $18 level of resistance that I identified in a earlier post. I will look for a retracement back to $17 and see how it holds up there. May look to re-establish a poslition in this name. Only time will tell.
ReplyDeleteAlso UNG traded down to $8.61 today. I am starting to wonder if there is any edge in using the NAV from the previous day to trade this ETF on current day. Two days in a row now I have noticed the ETF trade lower to adjust the stock price to one more in line to the NAV per share. I will be watching this relationship again tomorrow. May even try to initiate a small position to try it out. Depends how much variance there is between the NAV and the actual stock price. This morning would had been a great opportunity as there was about $0.35 variance between the Stock price and NAV.
I will keep you guys posted.
Today Scott Redler of T3 live has exited his long in Gold as he thinks the current move is becoming parabolic and will soon see the kind of volatility that Oil saw when it was pushing $150 a barrel. He does not however think that there is not more upside in the long term. But for now it is probably more prudent to take profits.
ReplyDeleteWith that said, my SLV puts have not been doing much at all. I would had thought that Silver would had moved a bit more with Gold. But it has not. So I covered my 2 short put contract for break even money. If we do get a decent pull back I may look to initiate a new position. But I respect Scotts ability to see high probability events, which was enough to scare me out of my position.
Dominic
Looks like that exit in SLV for now was a good move. I got out for even money and now it has traded a good amount lower since my exit. Lucky? Like you said Jason, sometimes that conviction is just from the gut.
ReplyDeleteSTLD did trade down close to $17 where I was looking to re-enter the position that I closed out last week, but I again was not watching the market and missed the re-entry. Oh well...
I haven't paid close attention for the last few weeks. I decided to sit the month of December out to concentrate on finishing school. In exchange I will now be available full time from here on out. I definitely plan on making some plays for January expiration but I don't want to force anything either. I'd like to develop a game plan to draw monthly income, then if/when I find a job I would just let that money roll over and reinvest.
ReplyDeleteI have been watching this UNG ever since it was below $9. I missed my entry on selling the puts that I posted about, which are now about $500 in the money.
ReplyDeleteYou may or may not have noticed that the probabilities on the analysis that I post do not equal 100%. I am in the proccess of finding out how this calculation is performed and why it does not equal 100%. My hunch tells me that Because of the three buckets there is overlap between probability of max profit and probability of break even/any profit.
ReplyDeleteYou really know your stuff... Keep up the good work!read me
ReplyDelete