Thursday, July 1, 2010

Hedging my hedge

At this point the only real potential for gains I have left on the books is a SPY put hedge that can finish anywhere from -420 to +5000. Should the market rally back a bit and thus kick myself in the nuts for closing out a trade at -1620 instead of +840, I'm looking for a way to maybe capitalize off such a move. If we get a bounce tomorrow I'm thinking about putting on a call backspread, now that I know more about them. This is pretty close to the reverse of the SPY put play I have on but opposite. So below is the individual call backspread and the combined position should I put it on. My risk would be if SPY closed higher than 109, I just don't see SPX above 1090 two weeks from now and I'm willing to wager accordingly. I just think there are too many people who would love to get out at even money of anything they put on in the last few weeks. Closing above 1040 at this point would be a victory, I don't see another 50 points on top of that. This call backspread can be put on for 0 out of pocket with a max gain of $3000, average of $1500, and unlimited losses above SPX 1090.

The chart shows the needed trajectory line to reach 109, which is right at the downtrend resistance line. The blue line is a copy of the last bounce off of 1040, so should we see something similar or even bigger, I would lose money. Unless it happens immediately after I put this play on I should be safe. But anything can happen.

1 comment:

  1. I think this trade makes sense. I think that with the technical landscape 109 is out of the cards between now and expiration. Like you mentioned above we have to see how the 1040 level holds if it goes up to test. I like the expansion of your profitability zone. It looks like your basically get out for a wash anywhere between 103.5-104.5. I am not sure how much the loss is at the 104 strike but it looks like it is less then your $420 if the Spy put play would expire worthless.

    Have you thought about adding this play with the weeklies?