Sunday, May 31, 2009

The Metal's (Intrinsic Value is > Zero)...Right?

Friday Jason and I met up and got lunch. On the way back to my office we started talking about a position that he has on the silver ETF. If I remember correctly he sold the $8 Puts and bought the $15/$30 bull call spread. Jason Correct me if I am wrong. But anyways the discussion started out with Silvers performance as of late. It has been outperforming gold for sometime now and seems to be the metal of choice for protection against the all mighty inflation. One point that Jason and I discussed was that what the worst case scenario could be with this position. Theoretically Silver could go to zero and he would lose what ever he paid for the call spread and be exercised on his contracts to buy silver at $8. But lets look at this play a little more realistically. It is very unlikely that Silver will ever go to zero because as Jason pointed out "it has intrinsic value" So even if he lost out on the call spread and go executed on the puts he could eventually sell enough calls against his position to break even. I guess what I am trying to say is that I like the risk/reward on this play. As I see hyper inflation a few years down the road, I think that commodities will outperform stocks by a long shot. But one thing put Silver on my radar more than anything and that was the fact that Jason stated on Friday, "That compared to gold Silver has many more practical applications". One example he pointed too was how Silver is a super conductor of electricity and how vital a role it will play in the development of the "Smart Grid". Anyways, thanks Jason for opening this opportunity up to me. I will look to put on a position in Silver, I am just not sure what yet.

1 comment:

  1. I'm looking at a comparison of both commodities and ironically copper is trading almost in unison with silver and should be an even bigger player in the "smart grid" and China stimulus package. the wild ride of fear to greed has investors concerned about inflation which is helping to push the commodities up higher.

    ReplyDelete