Monday, January 3, 2011

When Technical Analysis Steals Your Lunch Money

Update to my NG trade. I am so grateful I wussed out and closed my short put in hopes of putting it back on again on a pullback. Looks like that worked out wonderfully. Although TA is a great tool, do not get comfortable and rely on it. I don't want to say I made a mistake on this trade because clearly that would be a retrospective comment, but I do want to point out that TA just like anything else, is only an input tool and not a system in of itself. If it were we would all just write a program to trade accordingly, life and trading isn't that easy. The truth is that basic TA has been working wonderfully for me on a few different asset classes the last two months over numerous trades. This time it didn't work but the ratio of hits vs misses is strongly in my favor so I'm going to stick with it as an input and deal with the minor frustration when it doesn't work.

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