Thursday, June 3, 2010

Market view

As you all may know or not know, I read the IBD news paper which for the most part is a technically driven paper. One of the article that I look forward to reading is the "Big Picture". They also publish a "Big Picture" article on their website on a daily basis. And for the past couple of weeks they have held firm that the market was in a correction, but after yesterdays follow through up day the current market out look is that the market is in a confirmed uptrend again. Now this does not mean we are going to make new move highs or that the uptrend will hold for that matter. All it says is based on the price action the mood has changed, at least temporarily. The next few trading sessions will be critical as to the direction of the market.

I am currently short the market via puts spreads on the SPY at 114/110 with July expiry. Although I am in bearish mode I have to, or for that matter we all have to be open to the fact that the complexion in the market can change at any time. I have not initiated any new positions since the put spreads that I bought on 5/17/10. One of the greatest things that I have come to learn over the last year is that you do not need to be making a trade every day. Sometimes it makes more sense to just sit back and watch and be ready for the next opportunity that comes your way. Keeping a large portion of cash keeps you armed and ready to attack at a moments notice.

On thing that I will be keeping my eye on is whether or not the SPY can close above its 200 day moving average at 110.84.

Good Luck Trading!

1 comment:

  1. One up day makes a new confirmed uptrend? T3 Live quoted IBD too in an email blast this morning. I'll wait and see. I don't feel comfortable either direction right now. I think your money allocation says where you ultimately fall, I'm in mostly cash so I must be neutral. I could see fear slowly abating should current concerns not unfurl further and then Q2 results start coming in and the first week of July and take us higher. I could also see current concerns get worse and the market not reacting favorably to good news. And we've always got the wild card, the next major event to rile the markets might not be anything currently on the radar. Of course that threat always exists, but combined with the obvious headwinds I'm content to sit and wait for more clarity.