Monday, June 21, 2010

The "Noise" and Jumping Ship!

It is very easy to get distracted from you original trade plan when you listen to the noise. When you have a bearish slant in your portfolio and you here a few convincing points from the bulls along with a gap up which will most likely happen this morning. But in all reality you should had already expected this when you put on your trade, you knew or you should had known that there was a high probability that the market would go up and touch your outer bounds of pain tolerance. But you planned for this, in your trade plan you said that if the market rallies to the upper and lower price limits that you identified in your trade plan that you would sell premium. Then why the self doubt???? That is the $65,000 question, right?

You have the self doubt because you are going to feel a little pain in the form of some paper losses and on top of that, there are some traders out there there in your moment of weakness, that can paint a pretty good picture for the other side of your position. But has anything really changed? Like I said you were prepared for this, you actually wanted this to happen.

All I am saying is that if you have a plan don't be so quick to jump ship. I am not saying that you should never jump ship. Here it is put another way,  if you heard that there were 67 shark attacks a year and only 4 of those fatal would you go into the ocean for $100? Well lets break it down there is a 67 in like 6.5 Billion chance that you will be one of those 67 (1.54*10^-10, or 0.0000000000154), ok so the math is obviously not very significant. Lets just put it this way you have a better chance of being struck by lighting. That is a chance I will take everyday, no matter how scary the media or anyone else might make it sound. I may be a little nervous at first but it is not going to stop me from going into the ocean.

I think my point is clear!


  1. I actually haven't put on any July plays yet so I'm not currently pooping my pants. It's always a little psychologically daunting when the market moves far and fast against you, but all the more reason to only enter in to trades with a defined risk you can tolerate. But I get your point, unless there is a true fundamental reason for the move, don't alter your course just out of panic. That's why it's important to understand standard deviation and the odds of the underlying touching your boundaries versus expiring beyond them. Or was your point that being attacked by a shark has a lower probability than having your condor move against you and eat your profits, therefore we should probably chose to swim with sharks.

  2. Well if I had to choose to swim in the ocean for a $100 and "risk my life" vs put on an Iron Condor and either make $100 if Im right or loose my life if I am wrong. I would choose to swim in the ocean every time...Here Sharkie, Sharkie, Sharkie...Bring it on, I know the odds.