I like this trade for a few reasons. One is the liquity of these contracts is great, 2nd its easier than playing flat our direction, and lastly because of an abundance of inventory. We have more crude then know what to do with and I do not see that happening anytime soon. The spread has gotten as wide as +140 or $1.40, seen in the begining of September. There is price support around +65 ish. I am looking to add around this area if it comes in some more and look for it to expand back up towards +140. I would stop the position out below +60 and would probably sell half if not all around +100 to +110. So risk is about 10cts (assuming I get the second set of 5 lots, Avg price would be +70 with stop at +60) for a reward of 30-40cts.
I have 5 lots of Long Jan '11 CL and 5 lots of short Dec '10 CL at +76.
So today I actually upped my size on this trade. Instead of adding 5 more lots I added 20 lots around +65, for a total of 25 lots with an average price of around +66.5. After evaluating the trade a little more I decided I was willing to play it larger and risk a little more. My new stop is a break of +50 and I am looking for a move to around +120. So I am risking 15 to make about 60, 1:4 risk reward.
ReplyDeleteIn dollars I am risking about $4k to make $16k.