Friday, June 18, 2010

Catching the Gold Bug...

Today GLD is breaking out to the upside and broke resistance around 122.45. I am not sure how high it goes from here but there could be some nice upside, as one theme I have noticed in the markets is that names that make new all time highs usually continue to make new all time highs, at least for a while. If you don't believe me go look at APPL, NFLX, BIDU, CMG, VMW, CRM, and many others. Here is a daily chart of GLD over the last year:


I got my long exposure via bull put spreads. I sold 3 Jul '10 122/120 put spreads for a credit of $0.74, which leaves me with a risk of $1.26 per contract. I will use a daily close below the trendline that I drew above as my stop. As long as it stays above the trendline I am willing to add a few more contracts to my positions on any dips.

6 comments:

  1. I think this is a very sound trade idea. Can you imagine if you had no time constraints and more capital to trade? I like where you're headed. I think the coming questions are going to be how to best allocate capital, and how much leverage is comfortably safe to use. I think those questions will be answered in time with more experience.

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  2. Today GLD has pulled back almost $2. I am adding to this position by way of selling 10 July '10 119/116 Bull put spreads @ $0.85. Again my stop is a close below my trend line, but more specifcally I am looking at the 119.80 to 120 level to hold. Otherwise I will not let this one trade too much against me. By my calculation at 119.80 I am risking about $280 to make about $1,000. This position is also going to allow me to neutralize my beta wheited Delta exposure by half from 400 down to 195. I am still about 45 Delta's over my ideal exposure.

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  3. I want to do something here but haven't decided what yet. The $122.47 didn't become support and gold moves in chunks so I'm going to look at this further. If you use the Sep, Feb, Apr lows there is actually a much lower trend line in place that would allow for a pullback to $115 without violating it.

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  4. I see what you are seeing on the chart. But I will be long gone from this trade by then. I am looking for the momentum trade. But it is important for my trade that it holds the $120ish level.

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  5. I also got out of this one for a small gain of about $50 as I thought about why I was in the trade. I was looking to catch momentum higher, the momentum died so for now I would rather be flat and see what gold does. As Jason says this metal moves in chunks. Sometimes you just have to go with the gut.

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  6. I think this is perfect risk mgmt on your part. Your original thesis didn't work out, your gut told you to get out, so you did. The $50 is just a bonus, realistically you should have gotten out because of the aforementioned reasons and the P/L is just a statistic of that decision.

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