Friday, September 24, 2010

Overbought or Not...Who Cares?

I have been hearing it all over blog posts and the media that the market is overbought and needs to rest before/if it is to continue higher. I say other wise...look back at the Mar-Apr time from the above chart. The market was overbought for an entire month, and we havent even officially hit overbought conditions by way of crossing over the 70 level on the RSI indicator. I think that this one has legs.

Here is what I am seeing to make the case for higher prices.

1) I looked back over the last 10 years and we have rallied into the end of the year 7 out of 10 years.

2) We have rallied nicely off of the 1040 level putting in a higher low...start of new uptrend

3) Traded above 50 day and 200 day moving averages and have held. Yestedays pull back saw a strong bounce today off of the 200 day MA. Would like to see the 50 day cross back above and then things look really good.

4) Nice consolidation at resistance and then the break.

5) Today prices look poised to close near the highs...I haven't seen the market blink all day.

Last week sometime when we first started knocking I moved all my money in my 401k from money market to the S&P 500 fund to catch this move. Last time I did this in February it was good for a 10% move. I am expecting something very similiar. I am putting my money where my mouth is. I would move everything out on a close below 1090-1100.

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