Friday, November 5, 2010

And the drum keeps runnin, runin......

Thats the Oil drum I am talking about. What a run that the oil complex has had. Today we took out the May highs in crude of 87.15. I had to go to the weekly to get the next resistance level, as crude has cleared all resistance levels for the last 12 months. We are hitting 2 year highs today.

    3 year weekly chart for Crude

Now in the longer term time frame crude can continue higher and has not reached overbought conditions yet according to the RSI. But the daily is getting close. I do think we get a correction on the shorter timeframes before/if crude is to continue higher. Probably down to at least $84-$85 range.

But then again I am biased as my portfolio is posiitoned to profit from the downside. Yesterday and today I have been lifting most of my long hedges preparing for a sell off, in exchange I bought some cheap call condors just in case.

Below is what my current portfolio looks like, Delta wise.

I will continue to try to trade around the positions and will be looking for opportunities to add long exposure. Based on my current positions my average shorts are as follows:

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