Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Possible trade adjustment in PBR

As you will see in the below screen shot the IV vs HV has a small difference of like 3%. HV is at 30 and IV is at 33. So options are inexpensive going into earnings:

So with that said I am looking for a possible way to hold some or all of this position going into earnings. I played with the idea of turning it into a call spread, but I don't intend to hold until expiration. So I do not want to reach my target and not be able to get out with the maximum profit. So then I looked at the 44 Apr puts and they only reduced my max profit from the original analysis by about $300 while making my profit range much larger. So I will buy puts for each call I decide to hold into earnings. See new analysis below:

I am currently managing the position on the 15 minute time frame and moving up my stops as it continues to make new higher lows and higher highs on the day. Current stop is at 45.96 and the stock is trading at 46.48.

The S&P is strong as I write this trading pennies from the January highs, so I am watching the strength of the overall market with this trade as well as the price of crude which is above 82 currently.


  1. New stop 46.40, Stock currently trading at 46.58

  2. Moved stop up to 46.50 and have now stopped out. I will now go and give my post trade analysis on the original post.

  3. I am a little confused on this one as I have not seen any news cross the tape for earnings. I found on TOS that they were slated to report yesterday but they have not.